How to Reason and Argue (Reconstruct an Argument)

Standards for evaluating an argument

• Vices
• Virtues

Vices in an argument

• One or more premises is/are FALSE
• Premises do not provide a good Reason for the Conclusion
• Relation between premises and conclusion

Virtues in an argument

• Validity
• Use the clause IF .... ONLY IF ...

          IF the clause is valid and ONLY IF the conclusion is valid

          EVERY argument with true premises and  a false conclusion is invalid.

• Soundness

         A sound argument, all the premises are true and the conclusion is true.

         If a deductive argument is not sound, then it is not a good argument

Deductive Arguments

• The conclusion should follow from the premises
• Validity
• A deductive argument is supposed is valid
• An inductive argument is supposed not to be valid 

Argument Reconstruction 

1. Stage 1: Close Analysis
• Do a close analysis
2. Stage 2: Get down to the basics
• Remove all excess verbiage
• List all explicit premises and conclusions in standard form.
3. Stage 3: Sharpen edges
• Clarify where needed
• Break up where possible without distortion
4. Stage 4: Organize parts
• Divide the arguments into sub-arguments and arrange them in order
5. Stage 5: Fill in gaps
• Assess whether each argument is valid
• Add suppressed premises where needed
• Check each premise for truth
• Qualify premises to make them true where needed if possible
6. Stage 6: Assess the argument
• Conclude

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Organize Parts

1. Identify and number and premises and conclusion.
2. When premises work together, put a plus sign between them and draw a line under them
3. Draw arrows from reasons to claims that they are reasons for.
4. Rearrange as necessary

How to Reason and Argue (Arguments)

Problem of the Skeptical Regress

Solutions to the problem

• Start with a premise that is unjustified
• Use an argument with a circular structure
• Use an infinite chain of arguments

Trick for dealing with the problem

• Assure the audience
• Discount objections
• Guard your claim

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Argumentative Moves

• Assuring 
• Guarding
• Discounting 

Assuring

• If a reason is not actually given, then that reason cannot be questioned
• Benefits
• Save time
• Help you avoid the skeptical regress

Types

• Authoritative 
• It cites an authority that the audience shares as an authority
• Reflexive
• Talk about yourself 
• Ex: I believe that ....
• I assure that ...
• I feel sure ...
• I held this opinion for years ...
• I've thought about it year after year
• Abusive
• Basically abuse you and call it nonsense
• Ex: Nobody but a fool would think that ...
• Everybody know this.
• It's just common sense.

Tricks

• Citation of untrustworthy authorities
• That's obvious
• It's certain
• I'm sure
• Distractions
• Dropping assurances
• Repeat a lie thousand of times until be true

Guarding

Involves making your premises weaker so that it is harder to object to them.

When you weaken a premise beyond what would otherwise be expected in the context.p

Responses

• Why did you put in the guard?
• Have you weakened the premises so much that the conclusion no longer follows?

Types

• Extent
• 
  
• Generalize a problem.
• Example:
• We need a new alcohol officer because ALL students drink too much
• Probability
• Example
• It is absolutely certain that ...
• Mental
• Example
• I believe that the President is 50 years old.
• I tend to believe that the President is 50 years old.

Discounting

1. They assert two claims
2. They contrast the two claims
3. They emphasize one of the claims

Key Words

• But
• Although
• Even if
• Even though
• Whereas
• Nevertheless
• Nonetheless
• Still

Trick of discounting Straw People

Consist in make them not see the problems with your position.

• One case would be say: 
• "I have 5 objections to respond." 
• "You might say this .... but .... "
• "You might say that .... but .... "
• "How ever you would say that"
• "You might still say that"
• "Although ..."

Another Trick

• Misuses of guarding and assuring

Another Trick named "Evaluation"

Levels of Evaluation

• General

This evaluations imply that achieve a standard that is unknown

• Good / Bad - Ex. Your vote is good for me
• Ought to - Ex. You ought to use this product
• Should / shouldn´t
• Right / Wrong

• Specifics
• Beautiful / Ugly
• Cruel / Kind
• Brave / Cowardly

Happiness

Conceptual Domain

1. Well-being "Overall my life is going well"
2. Traits "I am an enthusiastic person"
3. Emotions "I feel reverence and gratitude"
4. Sensation "This sun feels good on my skin"

Happiness does not mean

• Having all your personal needs met
• Always feeling satisfied with life
• Feeling pleasure all the time
• Never feeling negative emotions
• There´s a uniform prescription for happiness - one size does not fit all

4 Ways happiness can hurt you

• Too much happiness can makes you less creative and less safe
• Happiness is not suited to every situation
• Not all types of Happiness are good for you
• Pursuing happiness may actually makes you unhappy

Differences between happy life and a Meaningful one

• Happy people satisfied their wants and needs, but that seems largely irrelevant to a meaningful life
• Happiness involves being focus on the present, whereas meaningful involves thinking more about the past, present and future -  and the relationship between them
• Meaningfulness is derived from giving to other people; happiness comes from what they give to you
• Meaningfulness lives involves stress and challenges
• Self-expression is important to meaning but not happiness

Philosophy

• Seeking happiness without meaning would probably be a stressful, aggravating, and annoying proposition

Basic Factors in Hapiness

• Exercise -  Establish a goal
• Sleep - Sleep well
• Achievement

How to Reason and Argue (Basics)

Argment

• It is a connected series of statements  intended to establish a definite proposition.

• A series of sentences, statements or propositions
• -> where some are the premises 
• -> and one is the conclusion
• -> where the premises are intended to give a reason for the conclusion

Purpose

• Persuading is making people believe or do something that they would not otherwise believe or do.
• Justifying is showing someone a reason to believe the conclusion.
• Tries to give good reasons

Uses of an argument

• Explaining is give a reason why something happened or is true
• The purpose is help people to understand something true
• Attempt to fit a particular phenomenon into a general pattern in order to increase understanding
• Types
• Casual - Why something happened
• Formal - Help to understand
• Teological - To explain the purpose of something
• Material - Explains of what something is made of

Explanation as an argument

1. General principle or law
2. Initial condition
3. Phenomenon to be explained

Notes

• You can get an explanation without prediction
• Viceversa you can get a prediction without an explanation
• Example: Bode's Law explains th distances between planets without explain why the planets take that distance among them

Meaning

There are three levels

• Linguistic
• Meaningful utterance

Examples:  The old man the ship

This phrase is meaningful.

If you read “the old man” as a noun phrase, then you will look for a verb and not find one. That makes this garden path sentence seem meaningless. However, “the old” can be a noun by itself referring to old people, and “man” can be a verb referring to managing the ship, and then the sentence means “The old people manage the ship.”

• Speech
• Advising in which you not persuade
• Conversational
• Persuade a person
• Inform a person

Conversational Act is the bringing about of the intended effect, which is the standard effect for the kind of speech act that the speaker is performing.

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Conversational Maxims (Paul Grice)

• Quantity
• Don't say too much or too little
• Quality
• Don't say what you don't believe or what you have no reason to believe.
• Relevance
• Be relevant
• Manner
• Be brief
• Be orderly
• Avoid obscurity
• Avoid ambiguity

Argument Markers

There are two types:

1. Conclusion marker
• After the reason introduce the conclusion
2. Reason marker
• After the conclusion introduce the reason

The following words are Argument markers:

• so
• therefore
• thus
• accordingly
• hence

You can replace each argument marker in the following sentences without affect the meaning

I am tall, so I am good at sports

I am tall. Therefore, I am good at sports

The following words are Reason markers:

• because
• for 
• as
• so
• since
• due to
• for the reason that
• and the reason why
• ....

Finance ( Exercises III)

1. Calculate the PV for month 3th and 4th
• =PV(.05/12,4,0,300)
• =PV(.05/12,12,0,300)
2. Add the PVs
3. Substrat 500 minus point 2) = $80.45

Other solution is

1. Use NPV formula =NPV(.05/12,0,0,0,300,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,300)
2. Substrat 500 minus point 1)

Y0 = 10,000
Y1 = 1,300
....
Y7 = 5,000

1. Use the IRR formula =IRR(A1:A7)
2. IRR = 9.12%

Answer is 5

Payback Period = Initial Investment / Cash Inflow per Period

1. Calculate the initial investment = 12,000 - 7,500 = $4,500
2. Calculate the PV of each year
• =PV(0.06,4,1200)
3. Add 1) + 2) = 341.87
4. Calculate the PV of 5th year for $1,200 
• =PV(0.06,4,0,1200) = 896.71
5. Divide 1) between 4)
• 342 / 897 = 3.8 % of 12 months
6. Multiply per 12 months to get the annual average
• 3.8% * 12 = 4.6

E26 = 2,800
B26 = 10% interest rate

1. Calculate the monthly gain = 10K - 7,200
2. Calculate the NPV = NPV(E26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26,B26)
• Other way is calculate the =PV(E26,20,B26)
3. Subtract the step 2) minus the equipment = $13,837.98 

A33 =  $240,000.00

A40 =  $4,5000

H35= step 2)

A39 = 0.055 new rate
H33 = ($1,556.64) monthly payment

1. Calculate the payment =PAYMENT(0.0675/12,30*12, 240000)
2. How much do I owe for next 25 years  =FV(0.0675/12, 5*12,H33,A33)
• H33 = ($1,556.64) This become for step 1)
• This part was difficult for me but as I understand, the formula works as first estimate how mush are the first 5 years of payments and then subtract the initial payment of $240,000.00 after 5 years
3. Add how much you owe plus the pay closing cost =-H35+A40
4. Calculate how much you will pay with the new rate (5.5%) =PV(A39/12, 25*12,H33)
• To be honest I don't know why i use the same amount of payment of step 1). My guess is that you use the same payment because that amount is going to cover the initial credit of 240K, and you are re-financing the gain for the bank (interest rate)
5. Subtract point 3) minus point 4) and this is the answer $23,685.86 

A50 = 25,000 per year
A51 = 10% rate

1. Use the NPV formula 
• =NPV(A51,A50,A50,A50,A50,A50,A50,A50,A50,A50,A50)
2. Subtract point 1) minus costs of 50,000 (lot) - 60,000 parking lot minus = 

   $43,614.18

1. Use the formula of PV for Annuity growing at rate g, using this values:  3% growth rate, n = 20 years, r = 7.5%

• Multiply by $200,000
• Substract $1,000,000 minus the PV annuity =  $1,554,745.19 

Answer = 127,072

1. Use the formula of PV for Annuity, using this values:  n = 20 years, r = 10%
2. Multiply by $72,000
3. Subtract from point 2) the building and renovation = 42,976.59
4. NPV = 42,976.59
   

A135 = 0.09/12
A134 = 15 years because has passed 6 years
A133 = $8,000

1. Calculate the PV =>    =PV(A135,A134*12,A133)

Learning How to Learn ( Renaissance Learning )

Metaphors

• One of the best things you can do to not only remember but understand concepts is to create a metaphor or analogy for it.
• Metaphors and visualization—being able to see something in your mind’s eye—have been especially helpful, not only in art and literature, but also in allowing the scientific and engineering world to make progress. 
• It’s often helpful to pretend you are the concept you are trying to understand. 
• Metaphors and analogies are useful for getting people out of Einstellung—being blocked by thinking about a problem in the wrong way. 

Change your thoughts, Change your life

• It is proved by Santiago Ramon y Cajal that if you do a big effort even if you dont have all the intelligence will brain will develop more neurons
• Cajal named the perseverance the virtue of the less brilliant

Exercise, answer the following questions. 

Take a moment now and think about your own learning style. Do you think that you take responsibility for your education? Do you think you spend enough time practicing and studying? Are there any specific instances or areas that you think you can improve upon?  Write your thoughts below.

By taking the simple action of thinking about this and “chunking” your answers, you can have a surprisingly positive effect on how your learning unfolds. 

Teamwork

• The advantage of teamwork is that the rest group can help you as the devil's advocate 
• The left brain side always try to justify you point of view 
• The right brain side is responsible of see the big picture
• Work in team, only if all the members 
• Are focus
• Don't turn the session in social events
• Get to the session with all the information and material

Test Checklist

• Did you make a serious effort to understand the text?
• Did you work with classmates on homework problems?
• Did you attempt to outline every homework problem solution?
• Did you participate actively in homework group discussions?
• Did you consult with the instructor ?
• Did you understand all of you homework problem solutions?
• Did you ask in class for explanations of homework problem solutions that weren't clear to you?
• A study guide?
• Did you attempt to outline lots of problem solutions quickly?
• Did you go over the study guide and problems with classmates and quiz one another?
• A review session?
• Did you get a reasonable night's sleep before the test?

How to start

Start with the HARD problems but jump quickly to the easy ones

• When you fell stuck then change to the easy problems
• This allow been in focused and diffuse mode
• Change to something easy as you get bogged down or stuck

Breath

• breathe filling up your belly not your chest

Hitchhiker's Guide

What the problem is about?

• What are you trying to do?
• What do you want to achieve?
• What information do you have?

ADEPT

Analogy

Diagram

Example

Plain English
Technical description

Finance (Cash Flow)

Valuing an Idea / Project

• All value is relative: Law of one Price!
• There are two ingredients to conducting a valuation:
• Cash Flows: Who do they "belong" to? Project
• Cost of Capital, r: Who does this "belong" to? Market Place

Principles

• Estimate all cash flows on an incremental basis 

1. Always for each project draw two time lines divided by the same periods of time
2. In the first time line is for the period without the project  ..... (A)
3. In the second line  is for the period with the project ........... (B)
4. The earn is the difference from (A) - (B)

• Main accounting issue is DEPRECIATION because is Made Up
• The second main thing is Non-cash items by tax reasons
• Do not mix Financing with Operations
• The project analysis must be based on ASSETS
• Include the effects of inflation/deflation
• Do not compare projects with unequal lives

Sources of cash flows

• Performance Income Statement
• Show the flow of things during the year
• Balance sheet statement
• A snapshot of assets/stocks

The differences between Balance sheet and Income Statement is FLOW and ++SNAPSHOOT

Cash Flow from Project / Operation

The good companies do the analysis by the sellers. 

The field is called Market and research analysis

Cash Flow is determined by:

• Revenue = (Price)  x (Quantity)
• The price is the market price determined by the marketplace
• Costs of Goods Sold = (Price)  x (Quantity) from your inputs
• The differences is that can be many prices and quantities  
• Selling, General & admin costs
• Depreciation
• How much do you use a (machine)

Cash Flow    

   Revenue 

- Costs of Goods Sold  (COGS)

- Selling, General & admin costs   (SG&A)

- Depreciation  

______________________________

= Operating Profits

- Cash Taxes on Operating Profits

______________________________

= Net Operating Profits After Tax (NOPAT)

+ Depreciation
- Capital Expenditures
- Increases in Working Capital   <=  Account Receivables (AR) - Account Payables (AP) + Inventory
______________________________
= Free Cash Flows (FCF)

Depreciation 

• Depreciation is the non-cash flow item. It is something that is not happening in this year.
• First you subtract the depreciation in order to reduce the taxes, then you need to add to your Net Operating Profits After Tax because depreciation is not real.

Capital Expeditures

• Also known as CAPEX
• Is the amount of money you spend on things that lost a while. Example: A new machine to produce

Working Capital

• Resources to spend before it is produced.
• Example: The inventory
• The field is called Working Capital Management
• This is the reason of the philosophy zero inventory

Learning How to Learn ( Procrastination)

Procrastination

When you procrastinate, you feel better--but only temporarily.  In this, procrastination shares common features with addiction.

Building habits

• The Cue
• The trigger that launches you in zombie mode
• The cue could be beneficial like when see the first task of our list or denial as the message of our friend to go out. 
• The real problem is the routine to react to the cue
• The routine
• Create a positive routine
• Reward
• Have a reward is beneficial otherwise the procrastination seems more pleaseant overall by be inmediatly
• Belief
• The most important thing is change the underline belief

Surf's up 

This is a technique to re-frame your mind when start an activity you are procrastinating.

• Focus on the PROCESS not the PODUCT
• The process is the habit that of course at the end will produce the product
• It is like surf a wave, the surfer is focus in the moment not in arrive at the end of the wave

Steps

To create a new habit or override a habit is CHANGE the reaction to the cue.

• Identify the cue for the bad habit, this cue can be in at least one of these categories:
• Time
• How I feel
• Location
• Reaction
• Create a routine
• Develop a plan like leave the cellphone on the car before you go to the classroom
• Establish the reward
• Like in the TV show establish your goal or what you gonna get at the end of the process
• The belief
• Belief that you can change and get your goal

Advices

• Create a list
• Planning your quitting time is as important as planning your working time. 
• Eat your Frogs first. This phrase means to do the things you don't like first

Techniques

• Create acronyms 
• Associate the number with something meaningful like a birthday
• Create mnemonic that is a sentence where the first letter of each word represent a concept

Memory palace technique

• Remember a place you know very well like your house
• Put the things you want to learn in a path from that place
• For example: When you enter to you house there is a concept, later few more steps ahead there is another and so on.

Learning How to Learn (Focus Vs Diffuse Thinking)

 Focus Vs Diffuse Thinking

• Metaphor provide powerful techniques for learning
• Diffuse mode is like an artist (Dali)
• Dali relax thinking in his problem to solve falling asleep, in that moment a keys from his hand would fall and the clatter would wake him up.
• Learning something difficult takes time
• This is why you should study frequently instead of trying to learn everything in one day. Is like a weightlifter, he train everyday not one day previously as crazy

Procrastination

• Use Pomodoro technique
• The idea is to focus only in the task for that period of time and the get a gratification. This will cause a greater sensation of happiness 

Chunk

• A piece of information
• The main idea

Build a chunk

• Start forming a pattern
• Be focus or you are losing power to memorize the new thing
• Understand the concept, in other words when to use that chunk
• Define the context of the chunk you are building up
• Practice
• Use the bottom up technique
• Use the top down technique

Techniques 

• Recall instead of re-read the material
• Transfer one knowledge from one field to another.
• Interleave different concepts, approach and concepts all in one session.
• Test your self continually
• Mistakes are good!!!
• Law of serendipity, once you understand one concept the second one will be more easy
• Zooming in and zooming as analogy in this video Royksopp - Remind me

Library of chunks

• The creation of chunks is a good step and after that the second step is create a library of chunks.
• To create a library of chunks needs to related the new chunk with previous chunks. 

Chemical in the brain

• Acetylcholine affects focused learning and attention
• Dopamine signals in relation to unexpected rewards
• Serotonin affects social life and risk taking behavior

Improve the knowledge and techniques

Overlearning

After mastering a skill o knowledge continuing studying create the effect of overlearning that is the development of automaticity.

The problem with this is that for future problems only one see one possible solution. As the phase that tell that if you have a hammer you want to solve the problems hammering everything. This is called Einstellung

Einstellung

In Einstellung, your simple initial thought, an idea you already have in mind, or a neural pattern you’ve already developed and strengthened, may prevent a better idea or solution from being found. 

It can sometimes be all-too-easy to take a wrong approach about problem solving or understanding a concept, because sometimes your initial intuition about what’s happening or what you need to be doing is misleading.

Finance (Decision Criteria)

Payback

In this method you only see which option return first you investment

• It is the rate of return you earn per year over X years, which makes the NPV zero
• It is not recommended to use this method, because you do not see in the long term.
• Ex. If we evaluate, R&I will never be an option using Payment as method for decision because R&I pay in the long term
• It is very common by been easy to calculate

IRR

• The problem with this method is that only use two variables without considering the Interest Rate.
• It is possible that you don't get any extra money because even you see a positive number in the IRR, you are not considering the value of the money over the time
• When IRR is used it need to be compared against the NPV, when NPV is zero
• If the IRR is bigger than "r" is a good project. "r" is the rate result of the bench marking
• You can have multiples IRR, and in this case need to calculate where is the positive are

Formula

Excel

• IRR(values, [guess])
• values are all the periods. Ex. A1:A8

Finance ( NVP )

NPV

• NPV, calculate the benefit of invest in one idea today and the benefit for the next period of times
• Is the rate of return which makes NPV zero

Interest rate (r)

• Captures the opportunity cost of investing in the idea (business)

Essence

• Value is always incremental

Excel

• NPV(rate, value1, [value2], ...)
• rate is the interest rate
• value1 is the first payment in one year in the future
• value 1 can be type as a rage of values A1:A5
• In a real exercise after the NPV you need to add the first payment that is the inversion amount. 

Formula

Properties

• (TVM) Time Value Money = Benefit - Cost
• Has a unit of measurement
• If NVP > 0 then has a obvious benchmark

Public Speaking - Vocal projection

Vocal Projection

Activators

• chest

Vibrator

Resonators

• Use the pharyngeal space to have more resonance.

Exercises

• Make the sound of; HA HA HA or HO HO HO
• Yawn opening the mouth as big as you can
• Make the sound of a siren

Vocal Health

Advices

• Drink lot of water
• Do vocal warm ups
• Say tongue twisters

Public Speaking - Framing languaje

Framing languaje

• Identificication / Consubstantially
• Is find a common place among
• Topic
• Speaker
• Audience
• Where we share common substance

Speaker audience commonalities

• Where you and the audience 
• have a sort of common substance
• are on the same side
• Find existing areas of agreement
• Be hard on the problem, but soft on people

Topic-Audience commonalities

• Don´t eliminate the possibility of a counter-argument
• Do augment the argument through deliberate word choice

Stylistic devices

• Alliteration
• Repetition of constant sounds
• Example: Let it be our cause to give that child a happy home, a healthy family, and a hopeful future.
• Asyndeton
• Omission of normally occurring conjunctions
• Example: "Be one of the few, the proud, the Marines"
• Example: "Now as an engineer, a planner, a businessman, "
• Polysyndeton
• Insertion of excessive conjunctions
• Ex: "We must change that deleterious environment of the 80's, that environment which was characterized by greed and hatred and selfishness and mega-managers and debt overhang..."
• Anaphora
• Repetition of the first word or set of words in a sentence or phrase
• Ex. "We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans,we shall fight with growing ..."
• Epistrophe
• Repetition of a word or phrase at the end of successive phrases
• Ex. "... and that goverment of the people, by  the people, for the people shall nor perish from the earth"
• Symploce
• Repetition of the first and last word in a clause over successive clauses
• Use the repetition in periods of three times 
• Use it to increase your value or priority
• Ex. "My brother need not be idealized, or enlarged in death beyond what he was in life, to be remembered simply as a good and decent man, who saw wrong and tried to right it, saw suffering and tried to heal it, saw war and tried to stop it"
• Anadiplosis
• Repetition of the last word in one sentence at the beginning of the next sentence
• Ex. "Our grief has turned to anger, and anger to resolution"
• Antithesis
• Pairing of contrasting words or ideas
• Ex. "Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself"
• Antimetabole
• The beats are A,B, B, A.
• Ex. "My fellows Americans, ask not what your country can do for you: ask what you can do for your country"
• Appositio
• Elaboration and variation of a word
• Ex. "JFK,  a great and good President, a friend of all people of goodwill, a beliver in the dignity and equality of all human beings, ..."
• Schesis Onomaton
• Elaboration and variation of a phrase
• Every time you break the seal on that liquor bottle, that's a goverment's seal you're breaking! Oh, I say and I say it again, ya been had! Ya been took! Ya been hoodwinked! Bamboozled! Led astray! Run amok! This is what he does.
• Maxims
• Short, pithy phrase
• The main sentence that captures the key idea
• "Short words are best and the old words, when short, are best of all"
• Ex. "This was their finest hour"
• Emphases
• Variations in intensity or tone

El arte de Ver

El arte de Ver

Libro que indica como mejorar la vista.

En los primeros capitulos dice que el medio ambiente y la mente afecta la visión y viceveresa, de manera que nuestra vista no es algo mecánico que pueda solo mejorarse con lentes (muletas)

Consejos para mejorar la vista

• Palmeo con manos
• Se cubren los ojos con las palmas de las manos curveadas sin hacer presión en los ojos y los dedos descansando en la frente.
• Hacer esto por unos minutos de manera periódica o cuando se sienta cansancio.
• La intención de este ejercicio es tapar la luz y que los ojos solo perciban una negrura completa. En caso de ver nubes negras es que se cuenta con una mala vista.
• Para conseguir la negrura completa después de cubrir los ojos pensar en cosas en movimiento como un lugar con arboles y viento ó un escenario con personas en movimiento
• Palmeo sin manos
• En este caso solo se cierran los ojos y se tratan de imaginar la negrura.
• NO tiene el mismo efecto con las manos pero es mejor a no realizar algún ejercicio.
• Parpadear
• Los parpados tienen un gran efecto sobre la visión, por lo cual si se tienen unos parpados estáticos la visión se vuelve también estática y por lo tanto es cansada
• Ejercicio: Parpadear 12 veces continuas de manera rápida y al termino cerrar los ojos un momento. Realizar esto por un minuto cada hora.
• NO tallar los ojos
• Nunca es aconsejable tallar los ojos con los nudillos.
• En todo caso se debe cerrar fuertemente los ojos y hacer presión con los parpados y los músculos de la cara
• Descansar la vista
• Se recomienda sobar la parte superior de la nuca para el cansancio de ojos
• Luz del sol
• Mirar el sol tapándose un ojo y con el ojo abierto mirar al cielo mientras se agita la cabeza tres o cuatro veces parpadeando rápidamente con facilidad

Finance ( Exercises )

Problems

Solution

Model A

• Today value is 32,000
• In 4 years  19,2000
• Calculate the PV (15,795.89), where 
• rate = 0.05
• nper = 4
• fv = 19,200
• Add 32,000 plus -15,7953.89 = $16,204.11

Model B

• Today value is 28,000
• In 4 years  12,6000
• Calculate the PV (10,366.05), where 
• rate = 0.05
• nper = 4
• fv = 12,600
• Add 28,000 plus -10,366.05 = $17,633.95

Finally

• Rest the value from Model A ($16,204.11) to Model B ($17,633.95)
• The result is Model A with a difference of $1,4293.84

 Solution

• Calculate the FV for each 12, 13, 14 and 15

Year 12	Year 13	Year 14	Year 15
($21,395.82)	($22,893.53)	($24,496.07)	($26,210.80)

• Calculate the PV for each year

Year 12	Year 13	Year 14	Year 15
$11,913.99	$12,140.93	$12,372.18	$12,607.84

• Add the four years
• The result is $49,034.94

Solution

• Find the monthly percentage =  6% annual rate / 12 = .005 = 5%
• Multiply per the borrowed amount = 200,000 * 5% =1000
• The result is 1000

Solution

• Calculate the time period, n=31
• This is because the birthday 35 is the T=1
• As I get it is that she start collecting the money since 34, where T=0
• Calculate the amount of money using FV
• The right formula is FV because you want to know from birthday 35th to the birthday 65th, you are looking to the future

Solution

• Establish the payment for the first rate
• PMT(0.1/12, (12*15), 180000) = ($1,934.29)

• Calculate PV for the next 5 years with the first rate of 10%
• PV(0.1/12,(5*12),-1934.29) = ($91,038.04)
• Calculate PV for the next 5 years with the new rate of 12%
• PV(0.1/12,60,1900) = ($89,424.20)
• Add the fees = ($90,424.20)
• Calculate the difference of the two rates = ($613.83)
• The result is a gain in the new rate of $613.83

Solution

• Define the amount to pay = 300,000 * 0.80 = 240,000
• Calculate the PMT for the first 10 years
• =PMT(0.09/12,(12*15), 240000) = ($2,434.24)
• Calculate the PV for the last 5 yeats using the PMT 
• =PV(0.09/12,60, ($2,434.24) ) = $117,265.54
• Calculate the PMT for the next 5 years using the new rate of 6%
• PMT(0.06/12,60,B50) = ($2,267.07)
• Subtract the first PMT less the second PMT
• = $2,434.24 - $2,267.07 = $167.17
• Calculate the PV of the difference to know the total amount to pay
• =PV(0.06/12,5*12, $167.17) = $8,646.88
• Add to the amount the fee of 4,000
• The result is 

  $4,646.88

  
  

I still dont know why is a) the correct answer

a) 15000-1500=13500 b) 500+(200*36)+8000=15700 c) 15000 (the price is split into 36 installments so you are paying the full price here)

The correct answer is A), because in the other options you are spliting over 15000 and for that little point you´d be paying more

Public Speaking - Persuasive Arragement Pattern

Persuasive Arragement Pattern

The people should be able to answer the questions

• What are the ills?
• Who or what is to blame for these ills?
• What are the cures?
• What can we do to help implement the cures?

Motivated sequence

In this case use the Visualization, where you can explain how would be solution implemented.

For example as in the speech of "I have a dream".

Argument congruency and flow

Examples:

Evidence

At least the evidence must do

• Illustrate a point
• Setting up a point
• Being the point

Fallacies of claim and data

Is a flawed argument, in the case for the speeches you must avoid also sound like you are committing a fallacy.

False Dilemma

• Is simply reducing a complex issue to two issues.

Begging the question

• Supporting a claim with the claim itself (slightly restarted)

Slippery slope

• One event leads to another without the necessary logical connection
• Avoid do many assumptions

Ad populum

• Appeal to popular support as the sole basis for support
• Ex. Millions of gamers have bought the Wii so it must be the best system around

Red herring

• Raising irrelevant data to distract

Post hoc

• Misreading chronological order as a casual relationship
• Ex. Censoring cartoons is in the public interest. Look at Canada. They put restrictions on violent Saturday morning cartoons in 1991 and by 1997 the crime rate had dropped 15%
• This two facts are not related.

Hasty generalization

• Insufficient evidence to prove a claim
• Ex. I have been in two Communication departments from different universities, so all the universities have a Communication department 

Non sequitur 

• The claim does not follow from the data

Straw argument

• Attacking a weak position (false argument) not held by one´s opponents
• Ex. A vote for the candy tax us a vote for ending childhood innocence

Ad hominem

• Attacking the person instead of the argument

Public Speaking - Counter-Arguments

Counter-Arguments

Clash Points

Where you and your audience actually disagree 

Stasis theory

Seeing the stances in a debate, to identify the clash points.

Types

• Fact
• Assertion about what is or isn´t
• What happened or didn´t
• Policy
• Questions about what we should do
• Value
• Questions about what is good or bad

Designing a Response

• NOT all arguments merit a response
• Try to persuade

Steps

• Look for an easy win
• Introduce new evidence and challenge preconciption
• Show the unintended consequences of the other positions
• Contain an argument within a large concern
• Address costs and benefits

Calls to Action

First, we need to differentiate  between Cure and Call to Action

Cure

• What needs to happen to solve the ill or blame

Call to action

• Small step to help advance or implement the cure
• Should be realistic and doable

Finance ( Philosophy )

Philosophy

• 
  
• Always look the money forward (FV)
• (PV) - The value of the money when you start to using it
• Benefit exceed costs
• Value creation only through good ideas/projects

Company

• It is a set of ideas
• A collection of projects

Decision Criterion

• Make sense (benefit exceed costs)
• Unit of measurement
• Benchmark obvious
• Easy to communicate
• Easy to compare different ideas/projects
• Easy to calculate

Cash Flow

• The cash flow come from the ideas
• Thing in terms of PROFITS

Interest Rate

• Captures the opportunity cost of investing in the idea (business)

Public Speaking - Persuasive Speech

Persuasive Speech

Argumentation ≠ Argumentativeness

Steps

1. Raise awareness about your topic
2. Identify a pressing problem
3. Discuss appropriate solutions
4. Outline specific steps for audience to take

Structure

1. Invention
2. Arrangement
3. Style
4. Delivery: Advanced
5. Delivery: Basics

Invention

1. The speaker will discuss the problematic effectively and appropriately
2. The speaker will discuss the solution effectively and appropriately
3. The speaker will discuss calls to action effectively and appropriately
4. The speaker needs congruent argumentative elements
5. The speaker uses evidence effectively and appropriately

Arrangement 

1. Orient the audience to the topic in the introduction appropriately and effectively
2. Arrange the speech in a clear and compelling manner
3. Conclude the speech in a effectively and appropriately

Style

1. Used stylistic and strategic language appropriately and effectively
2. Demonstrate a persuasive ethos

Delivery: Advanced

1. Captured the rhythm of the stylistic devices used
2. Help to distinguish between key ideas and elaborating details

Delivery: Basic

1. Used projection and notes appropriately and effectively
2. Used vocal variety, movements and gestures appropriately and effectively

Status quo

• The existing state of affairs
• In Persuasive Speech you probably are bumping against this status quo

Burden of proof

• Sort of evidence you are going to come up 
• What are the thresholds
• Example: Innocent until proven guilty
• Phrase: He who asserts must prove

Stock Issues

Are common argumentative elements

Lets take the following common steps as examples:

1. Ill
2. Blames
3. Cure
4. Consequences

When argue against the status quo

• Break down in two points (Ill)
• Significance (quantitative)
• Ex: How big is the ill?
• Harms (qualitative)
• Ex: How bad is the ill?
• What is preventing the status quo from solving the ill? (Blames)
• Structural inherency
• a formal block 
• Ex: A law
• Attitudinal inherency
• an informal block
• Ex: like a preconception
• Gap inherency
• existing solutions aren't enough doing enough to solve it
• What is the plan you support? (Cure)
• Think in terms of solvency and workability
• Is the plan solvent?
• Is the plan workable?
• Does the plan have material consequences? (Consequences)
• Think in terms of social and material consequences
• Does this plan will generate or cost money?
• Does the plan have social consequences?

Finance ( FV / PV)

Finance

• Finance is the study of value
• Is a way of thinking and a set of tools that reflects a way of thinking
• The most applicable decision-making system

Value Creation

Is about two key components

1. Time
2. Uncertainty

Time Value of Money

• Almost every decision involves
• Time
• Money
• Never compare money over the time without a rate.
• Always use time lines

Basic Terms

n = periods of time

r  = Interest rate (%)

FV = Future Value

• Compounding - is the finance term
• Initial Payment plus accumulated Interest
• Formula - 
• FV = P + r*P 
• FV = (1+r)*P     For one period
•      For any period

PV = Present Value

• Discounting - is the finance term
• PV = FV / (1+r)^n

Using Excel

Present Value

The formula is =PV(Rate, Nper, Pmt, Fv, Type)
Where:

• Rate: Is the interest rate expressed in decimal format (Ex: 0.10 ) or if is annually (Ex: 0.10/12)
• Nper: The number of periods
• Pmt: 
• Value 0 for PV of single cash flow
• Establish the amount of money you will deposit for the time period Nper
• Ex. How much money do I need today to pay 200 for 10 years
• Fv: The value of the money in the future 
• Type: Indicates whether the payment is due at the beginning of the period (type 1) or at the end (type 0).  By default the type is 0

Future Value

The formula is =FV(Rate, Nper, Pmt, Pv, Type)
Where:

• Rate: Is the interest rate expressed in decimal format (Ex: 0.10 ) or if is annually (Ex: 0.10/12)
• Nper: The number of periods
• Pmt: 
• Value 0 for FV of single cash flow
• Establish an amount to know the future value like a pension with a regular payment. 
• Ex. Each month I pay 10000 to my account.
• Another example is the amount each month you pay for your mortgage.
• Pv: The value today 
• Type: Indicates whether the payment is due at the beginning of the period (type 1) or at the end (type 0).  By default the type is 0

Multiple Payments

Terms

• C - Cash flow
• PMT - Payment

Annuity

• Is represente by PMT

Formula in excel
This is to know the amount of periodical payments to get the known final amount. 

=pmt( rate, nper, pv, [fv], [type])

• pv - is 0 if you do know have to amount inn each payment
• fv - is the amount of money you want to get at the end of the periods

Interest Component

Is the interest you are paying per the current borrowed amount 

Future Value on an Annuity

• Assumption
• The first payment of the annuity occurs one period from now.
• This calculate for example the amount of money I will get from my pension if I deposit an amount of money each month for n years

Present Value on an Annuity

• This calculate for example the amount of money I need now to expense for the next n years. 
• Ex. How much money do I now to expend 10000 per year during the next 20 years
• In excel use PV(rate, nper, pmt)

Efective Anual Rate

Where:

• r is the annual rate 
• Also know as stated 
• k is the number of periods
• EAR is also know as real

Perpetuity

A set of equal payments that are paid for ever, with or without growth.

Stock is an example of perpetuity
Bond is not an example because it is limited in time

PV of Perpetuity

                                                 
Where:

• C is the payment
• R the rate

PV of a Constant Growth Perpetuity

Where:

• C is the payment
• R the rate
• g is the growth rate

Present Value of an Annuity growing at rate g