Valuing an Idea / Project
- All value is relative: Law of one Price!
- There are two ingredients to conducting a valuation:
- Cash Flows: Who do they "belong" to? Project
- Cost of Capital, r: Who does this "belong" to? Market Place
Principles
- Estimate all cash flows on an incremental basis
- Always for each project draw two time lines divided by the same periods of time
- In the first time line is for the period without the project ..... (A)
- In the second line is for the period with the project ........... (B)
- The earn is the difference from (A) - (B)
- Main accounting issue is DEPRECIATION because is Made Up
- The second main thing is Non-cash items by tax reasons
- Do not mix Financing with Operations
- The project analysis must be based on ASSETS
- Include the effects of inflation/deflation
- Do not compare projects with unequal lives
Sources of cash flows
- Performance Income Statement
- Show the flow of things during the year
- Balance sheet statement
- A snapshot of assets/stocks
The differences between Balance sheet and Income Statement is FLOW and ++ SNAPSHOOT
Cash Flow from Project / Operation
The good companies do the analysis by the sellers.
The field is called Market and research analysis
Cash Flow is determined by:
- Revenue = (Price) x (Quantity)
- The price is the market price determined by the marketplace
- Costs of Goods Sold = (Price) x (Quantity) from your inputs
- The differences is that can be many prices and quantities
- Selling, General & admin costs
- Depreciation
- How much do you use a (machine)
Cash Flow
Revenue
- Costs of Goods Sold (COGS)
- Selling, General & admin costs (SG&A)
- Depreciation
______________________________
= Operating Profits
- Cash Taxes on Operating Profits
______________________________
= Net Operating Profits After Tax (NOPAT)
+ Depreciation
- Capital Expenditures
- Increases in Working Capital <= Account Receivables (AR) - Account Payables (AP) + Inventory
______________________________
= Free Cash Flows (FCF)
- Capital Expenditures
- Increases in Working Capital <= Account Receivables (AR) - Account Payables (AP) + Inventory
______________________________
= Free Cash Flows (FCF)
Depreciation
- Depreciation is the non-cash flow item. It is something that is not happening in this year.
- First you subtract the depreciation in order to reduce the taxes, then you need to add to your Net Operating Profits After Tax because depreciation is not real.
Capital Expeditures
- Also known as CAPEX
- Is the amount of money you spend on things that lost a while. Example: A new machine to produce
Working Capital
- Resources to spend before it is produced.
- Example: The inventory
- The field is called Working Capital Management
- This is the reason of the philosophy zero inventory
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