Irrational Behavior - Week 4 to 6

Week 4

• Ikea effect:  Is when you do something and then overvalue your work
• Zappos a shoes company pay to the recruited people for not taking the job, so the people that is hire always remembered  that the work is worth it (because they accepted it the money) , auto-justifying his idea that they have a good job
• At certain high level the money does not represent an incentive

Week 5

• We think in the immediate present not a in the long term
• Resistant to the temptation can be seen as a muscle
• The muscle gets tired after time
• The muscle build resistant with exercises
• Do not use a muscle to much before a competition
• You can build resistant to temptation, putting a reward after doing some work
• Ulysses contract, is when you avoid been expose to the temptation or you are expose to the temptation but you can access to it

Week 6

• Emotions are transient and more short-lived than we expect
• Emotions really change are way of behavior
• Identifiable Victim Effect: A single, specific victim inspire actions, whereas statistics about masses of victims does not.
• Our perception of risk is higher when:
• the event is salient in memory
• we have an emotional response

Irrational Behavior - Week 1 to 3

Concepts Learned

• Progression of pain over time matters: is better more pain at the beginning and then reduce the amount of pain
• As the amount of pain increase the sensation of length time increase
• Decision illusion are tricks that our mind plays on our judgement
• Choice architecture: People explain their decisions in terms of anchoring
• A forced choice procedure distinguished between actual preferences and the tendency to the status quo.
• People are happy with the less effort.
• Is easier to choose the default option Vs when we have to choose among more options
• Decoy effect: Is add a third option slightly less attractive to one of the other option.
• Changes in momentary mindset can have a significant 
• Self-herding: Once you take a decision you repeated one over and over

Week 2

• The pain of pay is bigger that the joy
• The feeling of pain is twice than the joy
• The people lose the dimension as the amount increases.
• People compare with the last previous status.
• People think they would prefer making more money (in absolute terms) while being the lowest-paid employee at one company to making less money while being the highest-paid employee in a different company.
• The pain of pay is less as we don't see the money in cash
• Is easily to compare using the same category not in terms of money Vs an item
• The financial motivation sometimes is against the social motivation 
• Complete contracts enforce the letter of the law rather than the spirit of the law.
• We prefer FREE overall 
• In a purchase the people think only in the purchase opportunity, the cost is not relevant
• The money is conceived in terms of opportunity cost in period of time. 
• As more time a person spend fixing the problem the client is more willing to pay more
• Endowment effect is to value more our talent or properties over others
• As relative saving are smaller the people are more willing to do it.
• More money dehumanize the person

Week 3

• what-the-hell rationalize why when we cheat is not so bad
• Creative people tend to lie more
• Remember the values before a test avoid the people cheat
• Gary Becker’s proposal evaluates an option based on costs, benefit and risks.

Model thinking

Standard deviation 

The standard deviation equals 12(√N)

Variation

1. Calculate the average value
2. Subtract the value less the avarage
3. Add the step 2) per value

Variation per category

1. Calculate the average value
2. Calculate the variation per category
3. Divide the category variation between the global variation from step 1).

Big Coefficient Vs New Reality

Implementation of a standardization also create a New Reality

Fashion

The velocity of how a fashion can be spread  is based in the threshold of each person to adapt the new fashion.

Prisoner Dilema

A person have more wiliness to cooperate as the opportunities of interaction decrease, so a relationship is builded according with the planned period to convey

Innovation

Innovation is the key factor to continue having a growth in a economy

Contagion Model

N= All population 

Wt = Infected People

C = Contact Rate

T = # Meetings
a = Cured People

Probability     

Wt+1 = Wt + [ NCT *  (Wt / N) (N - Wt / N)  ]

Probability of contagious = W (W - N)

SIS Model
Wt+1 = Wt + [ NCT *  (Wt / N) (N - Wt / N)  ] - aWt
          = Wt + Wt [ CT * (N-Wt / N) - a ]

Basic Reproduction Number: Tell if something is going to spread
Ro = CT/a

If Ro > 1 then spread

People need to be vaccinated (V)
V = 1 - 1/Ro

Diversity Index

Probability of fall in a tipping point

1. First square all the probabilities
2. Sum the probabilities
3. Take the inverse = 1/Sum of square probabilities

Mt Fuji Landscape

If do a graph of all the solutions for a problem, going to appear a Fuji Landscape with the optimal solution at the peak.

No Free Lunch

1. All algorithms that search the same number of points with the goal of locating the maximum value of a function defined on a finite set perform exactly the same when averaged over all possible function
2. Unless you know something about the problem being solved, no algorithm or heuristic perform better than any other.

Combinations

Calculate the number of combinations =  T * T-1 * T-2 / 3 * 2 * 1

T = Total of elements

Markov Process

_______________________            _________________
| Group 1         | % To Group 1 |       | Probability of group 1 |
________________________        __________________
|% To Group 2 |   Group 2        |       | Probability of group 2 |
________________________         _________________

Lyaponuv Function

This theorem establish a movement continue until find a top or bottom that stop it.

Always have a minimum and maximum 

Polya Process

All portfolio's projects are dependent among them

Networks

Average degree =  (2*edges) / nodes

Average path = sum of all path lengths / total combination paths

Number of possible triangles = # nodes * (# nodes - 1)  * (# nodes -2) / 3 * 2 * 1

Cluster coeficient = 1/ # of triangles

Connected Network: A network is connected if P > 1 / (N-1)

Skill Vs Luck

Paradox of Skill:  when the difference in skill between groups or individuals is very small, the winner is often determined by luck.

Relationship between skill & luck = [p * Luck] + [(1-p) * Skill] 

Having more fronts rise the possibilities of win

Cooperation

Way to cooperate are:

1. Repeated
2. Reputation 
3. Network Reciprocity
4. Group Selection
5. Kin Selection
6. Laws
7. Incentives

Projects

The people only contribute with the difference between the project cost minus the sum of the rest of participants efforts.

Never contribute with all that each can.

Calculate the value to do something 

M = Value to pay

c = cost of effort

p = probability of not work and still get a benefit 

M >= c / (1-p)

Replicator Equation

The probability of use a payoff

P1 = (Payoff * Probability) / Sum of (Payoff * Probability)

Fisher's Theorem

Higher variance increases rate of adaptation

Linear Models

Categories reduce the Variation

Diversity Prediction Theorem

Crowd Error = Average Error - Diversity
To calculate the error I need to know the result value

N

Public Speaking - Delivering impromptu speeches

Define a claim

1. State it 
• Give us the claim
• Do a pause before and after the claim
2. Explain it
• Send a bit of time unpacking the claim and priming us for the evidence
3. Prove it
• Get into the details of the evidence and how they relate to the claim
• Why you are using this evidence??
4. Conclude it
• Walk us to the point 
• Reinforce the claim and its relationship to the thesis

Speech Structure

Introduction

Open your speech
Warm up your speech: clear your throat, rub your hands, play your gestures

• State your thesis
• Preview main points

Transitions

Going to help to be along your speech

Demonstrate the distinctness of each point

Help the audience where you are

Conclusions

Review the main points and restate the thesis

• Use more delivering tone
• Do more pauses 

Provide closure

Closing lines

Speech Advices

1. Speech is like a dish, you don't deliver all the raw ingredients, you cook all the ingredients and serve the dish.
2. Breath from diaphragm
3. Project to the back of the room
4. Speak thinking that your audience is taking notes
5. Slower pace at:
• Thesis
• Preview of main points
• Each main claim
• Last line of speech

Gestures and movements

• Augment clarity

Public Speaking - Preparing impromptu speeches

Inventing main points

1. Decide on your position
2. Ask why your thesis is true  
3. Your main points should be claims, not topics
• What are the key parts or topics?
• You can think in terms of:
• Short / Long terms
• Past / Future
• Increase / Decrease 
• Cause / Effect

Arranging main points

1. Subordination:   Your discussion of the main points advances the thesis
• These points support the thesis
2. Coordination:  
• The main points work well together 
3. Discreteness
• The main points discrete among them, should not overlap

Phrasing main points

We want the main points to be concise and memorable

• Use short sentences
• 5 to 10 words
• Use vivid verbs
• implement
• work

Developing evidence

Support -> Warrant -> Claim

Support:  Evidence, is there to validate the claim

• What knowledge or experience am I basing my belief on?
• Is relate to the main point
• Be concrete
• Be plausible if hypothetical

Warrant:  

Machine Learning

Supervised Learning

1. Regression Problem .-  Using a set of previous information, predict future behavior
2. Classification Problem .- Using a set of previous information, can decide in which group belongs

Public Speaking - The canons of Rhetoric

The Canons of Rhetoric

1. Invention .- Coming with good ideas well suited to public speaking
2. Arrangement .- Narrative flow
3. Style 
4. Memory.- Remember your speech
5. Delivery

Relationship between:

<--- Performance Communication  <<-- Public Speaking -->> -----> Orientation Communication -->

Practicing

1. Do not restart your speech

Impromptu Speech

Create a impromptu speech

1. Select a prompt 
2. Prepare an outline in 5 minutes
3. Deliver a 4 to 7 minute speech

Structure

1. Introduction
• State your thesis
• Preview of your main points
2. First main points
• Statement of your first point
• Provide and explain two pieces of support illustrating the first main point
• Conclude your main point
3. Second main points
• Statement of your first point
• Provide and explain two pieces of support illustrating the first main point
• Conclude your main point
4. Conclusion
• Restate the your thesis statement and review your main two points
• Conclude your speech

Rubrics

1. Invention : Main Points
• Speaker:
• Support the thesis with appropriate main points 
• Explain how the main points supported the thesis clearly and effective
2. Invention : Support
• Speaker:
• Include appropriate and effective evidence for both main points
3. Arrangement 
• Speaker:
• previewed the speech clearly and effectively.
• transitioned between the speech's main points clearly and effectively
• provide internal structure clearly and effectively
• previewed the speech clearly and effectively and provided a sense of closure
4. Delivery
• Speaker:
• appeared confident
• used projection effectively and appropriately 
• used gesture and movement effectively and appropriately

Outlining and flowing

Outlining: preparing a speech in a hierarchical structure

Flowing: Taking notes on a speech in an outline format

Arguments

Support -> Warrant -> Claim

Support .- Evidence and information used to support your claim

Warrant .- The link that ties your support to the claim
Claim .- An assertion that you want the audience to take as valid